tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25460747128771097852024-03-14T04:06:18.400+01:00ATmatix BLOG English versionThe automatic classic chart patterns scannerATmatix.plhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00234417864500837406noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546074712877109785.post-19219372175201396642019-04-08T15:59:00.002+02:002019-04-08T16:00:53.233+02:00Update to our Privacy PolicyAs you probably know, Google discontinued Google Plus for individual consumers. As a result, our Google+ profile page was also removed at the beginning of April.<br />
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ATmatix.plhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00234417864500837406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546074712877109785.post-42913418092208208302018-12-07T09:21:00.001+01:002018-12-07T09:28:05.488+01:00Holiday Promotion<!-- Description: Holiday Promotion offer -->
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19 PLN</h5>
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16,17 PLN</h5>
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41 PLN</h5>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;"><sup>*</sup>) <i>PayPal exchange rate as of 2018-12-07. Please note the price in your local currency may differ, the exchange rates change every day, and the final settled amount may depend on the payment method.</i></span><br />
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Piotr Kuciapskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07878376174267757412noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546074712877109785.post-18796146504002996832018-09-28T09:24:00.002+02:002018-09-28T09:31:46.043+02:00WSE indices technical overview - 9/28/2018.Welcome to our periodic technical overview of the main Warsaw Stock Exchange indices.<br />
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WIG20</h3>
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After breaking upwards out of the head and shoulders bottom pattern about a month ago, bulls unfortunately didn't ride the wave as we observed a decline to the level of the right shoulder of that pattern (about 2200 points).</div>
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-KmkSt_gwXaM/W63QCp1I9SI/AAAAAAAACEA/TY2i_x_Ijhg7CK3pvek1OFXWOyoO63mBQCLcBGAs/s1600/WIG20_HEAD_SHOULDERS_BOTTOM_a7b79813e1da366a84b7b183125b2f59%2B%25281%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="300" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-KmkSt_gwXaM/W63QCp1I9SI/AAAAAAAACEA/TY2i_x_Ijhg7CK3pvek1OFXWOyoO63mBQCLcBGAs/s400/WIG20_HEAD_SHOULDERS_BOTTOM_a7b79813e1da366a84b7b183125b2f59%2B%25281%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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In the previous technical overview I wrote:</div>
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If the index losses the 2200 points level, the optimistic scenario [following the H&S pattern upward breakout] would be denied. </blockquote>
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Luckily, the decline didn't intensify and the support at the level of 2200 points held out. We could expect this decline to occur - in the previous article, I mentioned the possibility of a throwback after the H&S upward breakout. I also showed the rising wedge pattern on the FW20 futures chart, which could result in a downward breakout - and it actually happened.</div>
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-tkl-4pEdajY/W63QLff5mPI/AAAAAAAACEE/menkQvMZ_UIegMQjU1zwUqqnX5ilb67iwCLcBGAs/s1600/FW20_WEDGE_RISING_6b0d9fbdc53af6424f6b17333e8712f1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="300" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-tkl-4pEdajY/W63QLff5mPI/AAAAAAAACEE/menkQvMZ_UIegMQjU1zwUqqnX5ilb67iwCLcBGAs/s400/FW20_WEDGE_RISING_6b0d9fbdc53af6424f6b17333e8712f1.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Because the optimistic scenario, according to what is written above, is still in the game in spite of all, I'm still expecting bulls to manage to push the index up in the near future. Still, they have to overcome the local top set up after breaking out of the H&S, located just below 2400 points. </div>
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On the way up, we also have a potential resistance in the range of 2320 - 2340 points. This area was tested several times (in August and September, and earlier in April and May this year), and the breakout above that level looks like a one-shot for the time being. Sounds familiar? Yes, it means that a potential head and shoulders top pattern could emerge soon. Looks like a warning - we should also consider this possibility.</div>
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Finally, there is the uptrend line shown below that ATmatix detected in mid-September and it seems to be valid as for now. In my opinion, until this line holds out, we can still bet on the optimistic scenario regarding the blue-chips market. But if the H&S top pattern really emerged and was confirmed with a downward breakout, or the uptrend line was pierced, it would certainly be a serious bearish signal and we would expect the index to go back to the minimum established in June.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ye2XUzO9EI8/W63QlN4Az4I/AAAAAAAACEQ/bJT6_CNmjU8FV_4xF655QXrji3ho-VH9wCLcBGAs/s1600/WIG20_UPTREND_e3fd276dc6a2d6a9098c3387e96ee529%2B%25281%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ye2XUzO9EI8/W63QlN4Az4I/AAAAAAAACEQ/bJT6_CNmjU8FV_4xF655QXrji3ho-VH9wCLcBGAs/s400/WIG20_UPTREND_e3fd276dc6a2d6a9098c3387e96ee529%2B%25281%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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MWIG40</h3>
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In our last technical overview I expressed my expectations for the mid-cap index to finally rebound and push through its resistance level. Unfortunately, I was wrong and the consolidation we've been observing from June to the end of August, turned out to be the prelude to a further discount. The support level resulting from the double bottom and the ascending broadening triangle pattern was pierced and the index dynamically retracted almost 300 points lower. Fortunately, declines were stopped and we've been observing a solid rebound recently. As for now, it's only a pullback move towards the pierced level of 4200 points.</div>
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As you can see in the charts below, ATmatix calculated the downward breakout target relatively right thanks to its statistical model.</div>
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-uG_B4a7ohNg/W63RHjq1FQI/AAAAAAAACEY/fDWmKl1BkII_6CmJ_3DpVPXX8_xqOzegwCLcBGAs/s1600/MWIG40_DOUBLE_BOTTOM_0e6a1c4c1e6dfe6a91c5e55ec2ef22d0%2B%25281%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="300" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-uG_B4a7ohNg/W63RHjq1FQI/AAAAAAAACEY/fDWmKl1BkII_6CmJ_3DpVPXX8_xqOzegwCLcBGAs/s400/MWIG40_DOUBLE_BOTTOM_0e6a1c4c1e6dfe6a91c5e55ec2ef22d0%2B%25281%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pUsP0Z1UBGs/W63RYvqQCBI/AAAAAAAACEk/7z-_FFuzK544fPn5HfwZNfeOdjlNhhOpwCLcBGAs/s1600/MWIG40_TRIANGLE_ASCENDING_BROADENING_13751e6249bb488b539df8bd30cdff0c%2B%25281%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pUsP0Z1UBGs/W63RYvqQCBI/AAAAAAAACEk/7z-_FFuzK544fPn5HfwZNfeOdjlNhhOpwCLcBGAs/s400/MWIG40_TRIANGLE_ASCENDING_BROADENING_13751e6249bb488b539df8bd30cdff0c%2B%25281%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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This level is not accidental for yet another reason - you could draw the support line, resulting from the minimum set by the index in November 2016, on a weekly chart. Also, it's not hard to notice the downtrend line still holds and perhaps we should expect some profit realizations soon.</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-s0E7L-91n6M/W63UGESKqRI/AAAAAAAACE4/mP8c79TNTswtSvGchFiwZ7iEduk2vcANQCLcBGAs/s1600/mwig40_w.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="569" data-original-width="1475" height="153" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-s0E7L-91n6M/W63UGESKqRI/AAAAAAAACE4/mP8c79TNTswtSvGchFiwZ7iEduk2vcANQCLcBGAs/s400/mwig40_w.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<h3>
SWIG80</h3>
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Small caps also suffered a solid decline. Sadly, in this case there were no signs of rebound (yet).</div>
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fT7jzWPXB9w/W63VHracE2I/AAAAAAAACFE/S-50HTAEIlc10iRCTbEkkE-KBNiVhC5mwCLcBGAs/s1600/SWIG80_TRIANGLE_2084df43bb3c32dda22edbd3a464f64d.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="300" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fT7jzWPXB9w/W63VHracE2I/AAAAAAAACFE/S-50HTAEIlc10iRCTbEkkE-KBNiVhC5mwCLcBGAs/s400/SWIG80_TRIANGLE_2084df43bb3c32dda22edbd3a464f64d.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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In the weekly chart you can see that the index is close to its long-term level of potential support. It can be the reason for some relief - on the other hand though, there is still some space to the level of the valley established in year 2014.</div>
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-K0kRgvt0pgI/W63U-UMlZEI/AAAAAAAACFA/4DQ18PeTv20iVMhQbMBfbcrMD_Q9Y0uSACLcBGAs/s1600/swig80_w.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="528" data-original-width="1159" height="181" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-K0kRgvt0pgI/W63U-UMlZEI/AAAAAAAACFA/4DQ18PeTv20iVMhQbMBfbcrMD_Q9Y0uSACLcBGAs/s400/swig80_w.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-19lbyPm40Fo/W63Y2cwqkDI/AAAAAAAACFU/TXOpUc8VnhYSozq6DvgZ-8EisOutQpxjwCLcBGAs/s1600/SWIG80_TRIANGLE_ASCENDING_b820067ffa56ea067bf68d12e557a046%2B%25281%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="300" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-19lbyPm40Fo/W63Y2cwqkDI/AAAAAAAACFU/TXOpUc8VnhYSozq6DvgZ-8EisOutQpxjwCLcBGAs/s400/SWIG80_TRIANGLE_ASCENDING_b820067ffa56ea067bf68d12e557a046%2B%25281%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Piotr Kuciapskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07878376174267757412noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546074712877109785.post-8733426195095176212018-05-25T08:18:00.001+02:002018-06-14T08:25:57.965+02:00Privacy settings - important changes<!-- Description: Changes to our default privacy settings -->
About a month ago we announced updates to our <a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/blog/posts/2018/04/updates-to-our-terms-of-service-and_9.html" target="_blank">Privacy Policy</a>. Today, we futher improve our service by letting our Users manage their privacy settings.<br />
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No one likes advertisements - however, for many web sites they often are important source of additional income. We display ads only to anonymous visitors (users that are not logged in) and to users without an active PREMIUM subscription.<br />
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From May 25, 2018, all ads we display on our website are <b>non-personalized by default</b>. What does it mean?<br />
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Ads personalization is based on user's interests and visited pages. Our third party partners (like Google AdSense) may use technologies such as cookies or similar means to gather information about your activities in our web site in order to identify you and provide you personalized ads. From now on, such behavior in our Service is disabled by default, and you can opt-in for personalized advertising if you wish to do so.<br />
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<br />ATmatix.plhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00234417864500837406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546074712877109785.post-16621645986392574852018-04-09T10:00:00.000+02:002018-04-17T21:35:45.588+02:00Updates to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy<!-- Description: Changes to the ATmatix Terms of Service and Privacy Policy -->
We would like to inform all our Users that we are updating our Terms of Service.<br />
The new version of these Terms and the new Privacy Policy will come into effect on <b>May 25, 2018</b>.<br />
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You can view the revised documents by clicking the links below:<br />
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The new Privacy Policy document contains the detailed information on what data we collect, how it is processed and how you can correct it or ask us to delete it.<br />
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These changes are necessary to meet the standard for data privacy introduced by the new European General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR).<br />
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We will inform our registered Users about these changes soon, by email.<br />
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<br />ATmatix.plhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00234417864500837406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546074712877109785.post-8228664043610216642017-12-17T17:37:00.002+01:002017-12-17T17:42:05.253+01:00WSE indices technical overview - 12/17/2017<!-- Description: The Warsaw Stock Exchange main indices technical review -->
Welcome to this year's last technical review of the main Warsaw Stock Exchange indices.<br />
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<h3>
WIG20</h3>
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In the <a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/pl/blog/posts/2017/11/przeglad-sytuacji-technicznej-indeksow.html" target="_blank">previous month review</a> (polish language only) I outlined a possible bearish scenario - however with some caveats. Firstly, I expected the energy sector to improve; secondly - the banking sector's perspectives were still positive; and last but not least we could count on the potential "Santa Claus rally" effect of December (it hasn't quite happened market-wide, albeit the small caps stock owners have some reasons to feel satisfied).<br />
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During the last month we could observe a rise (mainly because of the bank stocks), which eventually stopped a dozen or so above the level of 2500 points.<br />
It seemed to be close to wipe out the negative signal of the Head and Shoulders pattern's downward breakout, but the index turned back yet again and now we're in the middle of defending the 2400 level - the index is bouncing up and down in a narrow horizontal consolidation region (HCR) - from 2370 to 2434 points.<br />
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The level of 2370 is not accidental here, as the index drop was stopped close to the 200-session SMA (Simple Moving Average) value. What is more, we could draw a trend line through the valleys in a way you can see in the chart.<br />
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Breaking down the HCR would be a clear invitation to continue the decline and to complete the bearish scenario mentioned in the previous blog post.<br />
The opposite scenario is likely to be held back by the upper line of the hypothetical falling wedge pattern (see the chart above). To improve the technical situation again, the index should rise above the level of 2500 points, but it may not be so easy.<br />
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In theory, bears have more chances here. Why? Because some negative technical signals occurred for some of the main constituents of the index, having quite a large impact on its value (<a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/patterns/all/wse/PKNORLEN" target="_blank">PKN Orlen</a>, <a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/patterns/all/wse/PZU" target="_blank">PZU</a>). The banking and the energy sectors' situation is also important - we'll take a look at them later in this blog post.<br />
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<h3>
MWIG40</h3>
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The mid caps index is back again near the support of 4700 points. We can see that a descending triangle is emerging there - and our <a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/help/stats" target="_blank">statistics </a>for that pattern type favor the demand side of the market.<br />
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We could draw that triangle in several different ways, and depending on the method, the upward breakout has already happened and now we're observing a throwback - or it hasn't happened yet. This is a good example of our pattern detection alghoritm in action - ATmatix tries its best to check out the different variants of trend lines.<br />
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One way or another, there is a chance to reach 4900-points level again, although it means that the index may continue to stay in the horizontal consolidation region that already spans 9 months.<br />
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<h3>
SWIG80</h3>
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Small caps index has been the strongest link of the main WSE indices. Previously, we pointed out at the large ascending wedge on the monthly interval chart.<br />
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The blue trend line caused the index to bounce up, though we should remember that the last monthly candlestick is not yet complete.<br />
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Recently, the index has pierced the short-term downtrend line, which is a necessary - but not yet sufficient - condition to change the current trend in the short term. Still it's a long way to go to reach the another higher-order downtrend line.</div>
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We may expect a rise even up to 15000 points, although we should also expect a corrective decline back to (or even below) the level of 14300 points.</div>
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<h3>
Sector indices</h3>
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Our focus is still on two significant industries: banking and energy.<br />
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WIG-Energy has broken up, according to our expectations, out of the descending wedge pattern (you can also interpret this price scheme as a descending channel).</div>
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Unfortunately, the index has retracted shortly after the breakout, albeit we can still treat that move as a throwback to the upper trend line of the pattern - it happens quite often for this pattern type.<br />
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If the index drops below the November minimums (about 2900 points), it will deny the positive signal of the upward breakout mentioned above.<br />
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The banking stocks index, according to our expectations, has been doing quite well and has made the new high during the last month. The recent retractation and another attack at the maximums may cause some of the market participants to make another attempt to take profits, so in my opinion we should expect some pattern top to emerge. The alternative scenario of course is to make the new highs - which could also improve the technical situation of the WIG20 index.<br />
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Piotr Kuciapskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07878376174267757412noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546074712877109785.post-42842275302489443332017-10-01T10:26:00.000+02:002017-10-01T10:26:51.928+02:00WSE indices technical overview - 10/1/2017<!-- Description: Technical overview for the main Warsaw Stock Exchange indices -->
Quite a lot happened since our last <a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/blog/posts/2017/09/wse-indices-technical-situation.html" target="_blank">technical situation overview</a>. Now it's time for an update.<br />
<h3>
WIG20</h3>
<div>
In the last post, we described the double top pattern and its invalidation with the upward breakout, which suggested a further increase, even to the level of 2600 points. This scenario has not worked out yet, but it doesn't mean we should reject it completely.</div>
<div>
<br />
In the meantime, the index formed an another, slightly smaller version of a double top pattern, near the level of 2550. Last time we suggested that you should expect some resistance there:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "open sans" , "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px; text-align: justify;">(...) we are already close to some significant resistance level, which was repeatedly tested in years... 2013 to 2015, and all these attempts resulted in bearish reversals. We're talking about the 2560 - 2630 range. Thus, we're </span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: "open sans" , "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px; font-weight: 700; text-align: justify;">getting close to the important point </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "open sans" , "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 15.4px; text-align: justify;">for this index. In our opinion, we can expect profit realizations near these levels, as far as demand manages to lift the index there.</span></blockquote>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dqVKo5znEdM/Wc9jvrcDuvI/AAAAAAAAAlA/ZWx-9SZtHTQ5NGjcgxBOOZH2xNpiK92egCLcBGAs/s1600/en-WIG20_DOUBLE_TOP_7a346d5e9d88fae16ae293c728fb0f07%2B%25281%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dqVKo5znEdM/Wc9jvrcDuvI/AAAAAAAAAlA/ZWx-9SZtHTQ5NGjcgxBOOZH2xNpiK92egCLcBGAs/s400/en-WIG20_DOUBLE_TOP_7a346d5e9d88fae16ae293c728fb0f07%2B%25281%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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We can also treat the above price scheme as a head and shoulders, and both these patterns were detected by ATmatix. We signalled the downward breakout from the double top and the H&S top on September, 21. The price target was set to 2409 pts. However, we could also expect a reversal at the level of 2425, as the strong resistance was located there. It was pierced upwards in the end of August after a long horizontal consolidation. As a result, this resistance turned into a support level, so it has stopped the recent decline, as you can see in the charts.</div>
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The scenario, assuming the reach for the new highs is still valid then, since the last correction could be merely a throwback after the invalidation of the large double top pattern mentioned earlier.<br />
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<div>
This bullish scenario will fail if bears manage to pull the index below the level of 2400 points. However, the new ascending trendline awaits there and it may turn out to be yet another level of support.</div>
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<h3>
MWIG40</h3>
<div>
Mid-cap stocks have performed much better and <b>MWIG40 </b>index has reached its new yearly highs recently. By adding the height of the horizontal consolidation region, inside which the index has bounced up and down since the beginning of the year, to the breakout level, we can set the theoretical target to about 5200 points.<br />
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An alternative option is to add the height of the lower channel, inside which the price has moved since June. Then we can expect MWIG40 to rise to the value of 5100 points. The round number of 5000 may also act as an overhead resistance here.<br />
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<div>
If the market chooses the opposite direction and retracts below 4800 points, it will be a clear alarm signal for bulls.</div>
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<h3>
SWIG80</h3>
<div>
SWIG80 has been the weakest index of the main WSE indices for a long time. It continues its downward mid-term trend within the pattern that resembles a descending channel or a broadening descending wedge.<br />
<br />
The horizontal consolidation region located at 15100 points, that could act as a support level, didn't stop the down slide, but there is a chance that the round level of 15000 will be able to do so.<br />
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However, only the down-sloping trend line break would be an initial signal for the trend change (the line is located at about 15300 points as of today).<br />
<br />
Much depends on the situation of the remaining indices mentioned above. Their positive performance can be a signal for the other WSE indices to follow.</div>
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<h3>
Sector (industry) indices</h3>
<div>
Regarding the sector indices, the chemical industry stocks have performed quite well. It is a consequence of the upward breakout from the descending wedge pattern that emerged in June. Recently, the index has reached its yearly maximum.<br />
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WIG-IT is on the other side of the coin. Stocks belonging to this sector have experienced a significant correction during the last few months. The recent index consolidation may suggest an attempt to rebound or it may be just another stop before a further decline. The level of about 2070 points is critical here.<br />
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ATmatix.plhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00234417864500837406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546074712877109785.post-85564117454335610712017-09-15T13:54:00.005+02:002017-09-15T13:54:34.409+02:00Types of chart patterns detected by ATmatix<!-- Description: The types of price chart patterns automatically detected and tracked by ATmatix -->
Just a few words about the way ATmatix detects the patterns and the types it supports.<br />
<br />
A chart <b>pattern </b>is nothing more than a unique scheme of<b> price tops and bottoms</b> that appear in a certain finite period of time. Those tops and bottoms are just local maximums and minimums created by the asset price behavior.<br />
<br />
To make things short – for instance, double bottom consists of two local minimums divided by a certain minimal number of sessions, in between which there is some local peak (additionally the rise from the lowest bottom to the peak can’t be too small). Of course, it’s not everything, because to talk about a bottom, the pattern must be preceded by a certain descending trend. The trend’s reversal is often - but not always - preceded by the creation of a bottom pattern.<br />
<br />
A huge part is played by the parametrization of our pattern recognition algorithms. We will try to put those parameters on the ATmatix website in the future. For instance, we assumed that the rise from the first bottom to the local maximum between two valleys in a bottom pattern should be at least 5% for stocks and at least 2% for indices and futures.<br />
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Some patterns form specific <b>shapes</b>, such as <b>triangles, channels, wedges</b>, etc. Those patterns usually have two limiting trendlines. Breakout occurs when a stock price pierces one of those trendlines in a certain direction. For example, a <b>channel </b>pattern consists of two parallel trendlines next to each other (more or less in the same time) in the price chart and the price bounces from the bottom to the top line and back few times. Those trendlines are the <b>breakout levels</b>. Their slope indicates the type of the channel (horizontal, descending or ascending).<br />
<br />
ATmatix detects trendlines in the following way: it looks for two points, being local minimums (in case of the lines limiting the pattern from the bottom) or maximums (in case of the lines limiting the pattern from the top) and a <b>third point</b> located between them - which doesn’t have to lie exactly on the line between those two points (there is some tolerance, without it we wouldn’t be able to find many). So, basically to set the line, you need three points. Sometimes, the technical analysts base the trendline using two points only, but there would be many of such lines found, and in our opinion minimum of three point sounds like a reasonable compromise between the large number of signals (sometimes false positives) and the risk of “overlooking” some signal due to a trendline occurrence.<br />
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<br />
Currently, ATmatix is able to detect price chart pattern types gathered below. The list is going to be gradually developed.<br />
<br />
Bottom patterns:<br />
<ul>
<li>Double bottom,</li>
<li>Head and shoulders bottom</li>
</ul>
Top patterns<br />
<ul>
<li>Double top,</li>
<li>Head and shoulders top</li>
</ul>
Triangles:<br />
<ul>
<li>Triangle, symmetrical triangle</li>
<li>Descending triangle</li>
<li>Ascending triangle</li>
</ul>
Channels:<br />
<ul>
<li>Descending channel</li>
<li>Ascending channel</li>
<li>Horizontal channel</li>
</ul>
Wedges:<br />
<ul>
<li>Falling wedge</li>
<li>Rising wedge</li>
</ul>
Flags:<br />
<ul>
<li>Flag</li>
<li>Pennant</li>
</ul>
Broadening formations:<br />
<ul>
<li>Broadening triangle (inverted triangle)</li>
<li>Descending broadening triangle (descending inverted triangle)</li>
<li>Ascending broadening triangle (ascending inverted triangle)</li>
<li>Descending broadening wedge</li>
<li>Ascending broadening wedge</li>
</ul>
Other, special types of patterns or price schemes:<br />
<ul>
<li>Flat base</li>
<li>Vertical run up</li>
<li>Three rising valleys</li>
<li>Support</li>
<li>Resistance</li>
<li>Uptrend</li>
<li>Downtrend</li>
</ul>
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At one point ATmatix was able to detect also a diamond pattern, but it is such a rare occurrence on Warsaw Stock Exchange that we have dropped it (the statistics wouldn’t be realiable at all).<br />
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Why does ATmatix not detect so-called <b>candlestick </b>patterns (hammers, shooting stars, etc.)? Firstly of all, we find them not helpful – how can you predict price movement based on one (sic!) or even a few candlesticks on the chart? Maybe it’s realiable for the weekly or longer interval charts. For us, those signals are insignificant with long-term investments – but we would emphasise it – it is just our opinion.<br />
<br />
Secondly, many candlestick patterns’ scanners can be found accross the Internet. As we have already mentioned, the creation of ATmatix was sort of a technical and algorithmical challenge for us, slightly bigger than recognizing simple candlestick patterns.<br />
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ATmatix.plhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00234417864500837406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546074712877109785.post-16769076660913184122017-09-12T17:42:00.002+02:002017-09-12T17:44:36.535+02:00The states of the patternsThe price patterns, since they are identified by ATmatix, until reaching the target price (or maybe not) in a certain period of time, may be in a few <b>states </b>(or statuses). All of them are described below.<br />
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<h3>
NEW/ UNCONFIRMED</h3>
When ATmatix detects a <a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/patterns/new" target="_blank">new pattern</a>, it finds all the local peaks and valleys within the pattern. On the chart, they are marked as green or red arcs. Additionaly, for some types of patterns, those points in charts are connected with a blue dotted line, as it is easier to observe some price movement schemes.<br />
<br />
Every pattern has its starting point (the first, the earliest local peak or valley, which could be identified) and the end-point (the last peak or valley). The end-point is also a date of pattern detection, presented in the pattern list view.<br />
<br />
At the time of the detection, two <b>levels of breakout</b> are determined (trendlines limiting the pattern from the top and bottom):<br />
<ul>
<li>Downward breakout level (red line)</li>
<li>Upward breakout level (green line)</li>
</ul>
<br />
For some linear patterns, where breakout levels are inclined at an angle (triangles, wedges, channels, etc.), some fragments may be marked with solid lines, as it is easier to observe the shape of a pattern; other fragments may be marked with dotted lines.<br />
<br />
A solid line is used within a pattern area (between the starting point and the ending point) and the dotted line is just an extension of that line outside the pattern.<br />
<br />
It is intresting to notice that for some linear patterns, the breakout lines, inclined at an angle, get closer to each other and converge at some point.<br />
It happens, for instance, in case of triangles or pennants. Then, the intersection point becomes the last moment, where the breakout is possible.<br />
More on breakouts can be found below.<br />
<br />
Certain values characteristic of the pattern are calculated immediately after its detection. Those are:<br />
<ul>
<li>The <b>width </b>of the pattern (the number of sessions, or candlesticks in chart, between the starting point and an end-point),</li>
<li>The <b>height </b>of the pattern (the percentage difference between the highest and the lowest price value within the pattern),</li>
<li>The <b>potential </b>of the pattern (expected percentage price change to the hypothetical target, assuming there were an upward breakout on the day of its detection). After the actual breakout, the potential is calculated again. More information below.</li>
<li><b>Volume trend</b> – the approximation of the turnover volume value from the starting point of the pattern to its endpoint, determined by the linear regression method. The slope of this approximated line may be falling or rising. </li>
<li><b>Breakout statistics</b> – based on the pattern type and the historical data. Please, note that these statistics may not add up to 100%. </li>
</ul>
<br />
The statistics are calculated in this way:<br />
<ul>
<li>In case of an upward breakout, the occurrence is counted as the upward breakout (nevermind throwbacks)</li>
<li>In case of a downward breakout, the occurrence is counted as the downward breakout (nevermind pullbacks)</li>
<li>In case of the upward breakout and then throwback, not reaching the target price, and then downward breakout (or the other way round), the statitistics take into account the move that was stronger after one of the breakouts</li>
<li>No breakout at all – often it happens with triangles, whose area is bounded by two approaching lines. Also the time span ATmatix waits for a breakout, is limited.</li>
</ul>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-f3CLobpVDSc/WbbCLJzvm7I/AAAAAAAAAik/X8KIiwZfMOsbC0dda5KHLHtR6xFBggoIwCLcBGAs/s1600/new_en.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="300" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-f3CLobpVDSc/WbbCLJzvm7I/AAAAAAAAAik/X8KIiwZfMOsbC0dda5KHLHtR6xFBggoIwCLcBGAs/s400/new_en.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">New, emerging double bottom pattern - example<br />
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</tbody></table>
<h4>
What time does ATmatix wait for a breakout?</h4>
<div>
What time does ATmatix wait for a breakout, so that it could detect it and inform about it? It depends on the <b>width </b>of the pattern.</div>
<br />
I have already mentioned the triangles or pennants – if the breakout (upward or downward) doesn’t occur within the pattern, then the breakout will not be detected by ATmatix (and will be counted as no breakout, which is why the upward/downward breakout statistics not always add up to 100%). Obviously, the price may choose a particular direction after some time, but it couldn’t be confirmed with a breakout within the pattern area.<br />
<br />
It is slightly different for the patterns for which the breakout levels are constant values (for instance double bottom) or lines not expected to cross in the future (i.e. channels, broadening patterns).<br />
Then the breakout time limit since the detection date is: the width of the pattern (number of sessions), but not less than 60 sessions.<br />
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For example, for double bottoms 30 sessions wide, we wait 60 sessions for the breakout, and for a double bottom 80 sessions wide, we wait 80 sessions.<br />
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<h3>
NEAR BREAKOUT</h3>
If the price approaches an upward breakout level from the bottom, or approaches a downward breakout level from the top, but not pierces it, then ATmatix marks it as “<b>near breakout</b>” (<a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/patterns/nearUpwardBreakouts" target="_blank">upward </a>or <a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/patterns/nearDownwardBreakouts" target="_blank">downward</a>). Those occurrences are detected with some tolerance. For the constant (horizontal) levels the tolerance is 2.5% for stocks and 1% for indices/futures.<br />
<br />
Some additional conditions apply:<br />
<ul>
<li>For “near upward breakout” – there has to be no decline on that day – the price hasn’t changed or has risen, reaching almost the upward breakout level with the tolerance as mentioned above,</li>
<li>For “near downward breakout” – there has to be no rise on that day – the price hasn’t changed or has declined, closing to the downward breakout level with the tolerance as mentioned above.</li>
</ul>
For example, the stock closing price on a given day must be at least 2.5% below the level of the upward breakout (and it can’t be a declining move). It is a bit different with patterns limited with non-horizontal trendlines. The lines may approach each other (triangles), get farther from each other (broadening patterns) or be parallel (channels). Then the area between the upper and lower trandline – on a given day – is divided into 4 equal parts. If the close price on that day, is in the highest or lowest quarter, and when the above conditions are met (decline, rise or no change), the event “near upward breakout” or “near downward breakout” is detected.<br />
<br />
It is essential to notice that if the price will make the breakout with one-day strong movement, then the “near breakout” event <b>may not be detected at all</b>.<br />
That can be also<b> signalled a few times</b>, when the close price of a stock approaches the near breakout area several times during the following sessions.<br />
Those occurrences are marked in the charts with yellow arrows, next to which a close price and an event date are given.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kej42m8ZVw8/WbbCbt06KBI/AAAAAAAAAio/TzlTLis-iHczz805UzYYL0ZrUqrPQnCfgCLcBGAs/s1600/nearUpwardBreakout_en.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kej42m8ZVw8/WbbCbt06KBI/AAAAAAAAAio/TzlTLis-iHczz805UzYYL0ZrUqrPQnCfgCLcBGAs/s400/nearUpwardBreakout_en.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The pattern is close to the upward breakout - example</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br /><br />
<h3>
BREAKOUTS</h3>
A <b>breakout </b>happens when the price pierces <a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/patterns/upwardBreakouts" target="_blank">upper </a>or <a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/patterns/downwardBreakouts" target="_blank">lower </a>level of the breakout (goes through the trendlines limiting the pattern) on a given day.<br />
<br />
The pierce of the constant breakout level is detected in case when the <b>close price</b> exceedes the level even by a penny. In case of linear breakout levels (leaning at some angle) the breakouts are detected with some tolerance.<br />
It happens because the detection of trendlines itself works with a certain tolerance (the lines may not lay perfectly on the three selected points in the chart and the line may in general be based on different point combinations – give a technical analyst a task to draw the trendline and you’ll know what I mean).<br />
For this reason, piercing the trendline by even the smallest margin, could result in a false breakout – this is why we have set up some tolerance. Additionaly it’s good to observe the turnover volume on the day of the breakout.<br />
<br />
Currently, the tolerance is 0.55% for stocks and 0.32% for indices/ futures. The values were empirically selected as a compromise between large number of possibly false positive signals and their validity.<br />
Usually the price volatility for indices/futures are rather smaller than for stocks, which is why we have decided to divide the list of instruments into two groups, and for each of them some parameters of the pattern scanner are different (the statistics are alsbo calculated separately for stocks and indices/futures).<br />
<br />
Other values caltulated after the breakout are:<br />
<ul>
<li><b>Breakout price</b> – the level, for which the breakout occurred. Price targets are calculated in relation to this level (with a rare exceptions, such as flags and pennants)</li>
<li><b>Potential </b>– the value is updated according to the direction and price of the breakout. It comes right from the target price computed with a measure rule for a given pattern type (explained below). The values less than zero mean that a certain decline is expected</li>
<li><b>Turnover volume </b>on the day of the breakout – this is a relative value, comparing the turnover volume with the average volume from 30 pre-breakout sessions. It is a percentage, where value below 0 shows that the volume was smaller than the average, and the value above 0 means the volume was greater than the average.</li>
</ul>
The pattern breakout is either a <b>confirmation</b>, or the <b>negation </b>of its validity. In case of the bottom pattern – its confirmation is an upward breakout. If the bottom pattern had a downward breakout then it’s not the bottom any more, because the price has declined even further. It is then an <b>invalidation </b>of such pattern. Similar things happen in the case of top patterns and upward breakouts. However, it doesn’t mean that it is impossible to try to predict the hypothetical target price after such breakout. ATmatix can handle it as well - we will post some information about it in the future.<br />
<br />
In case of pattern types commonly regarded as “continuation” patterns, it is hard to speak in terms of pattern confirmation or invalidation, so the breakout direction usually (but not always) means the direction of the preceding price trend is sustained.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-md_ts1JKCqY/WbbCq4YzyLI/AAAAAAAAAis/Tvge9LdBbc0Afkl-_dvzB2MgTOk7xsWIACLcBGAs/s1600/upwardBreakout_en.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="300" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-md_ts1JKCqY/WbbCq4YzyLI/AAAAAAAAAis/Tvge9LdBbc0Afkl-_dvzB2MgTOk7xsWIACLcBGAs/s400/upwardBreakout_en.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The upward breakout - example</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
The most important data – <b>target prices</b> – are calculated after the breakout. They are presented with the <b>statistical efficiency rates</b> of such breakouts, based on the historical data. Please remember that any historical data <b>does not guarantee</b> you will get the same outcome in the future, but they are a good (and the only reasonable and available) reference when estimating risk of success or failure.<br />
<br />
Usually, the target price (we can treat it also as a take profit level after an upward breakout or the purchase opportunity after the downward breakout move is completed) is measured by adding the absolute value of the height of the pattern to the breakout price – there are some exceptions to that rule, but I will dwell on it some other time.<br />
<br />
These are the <b>theoretical </b>breakout levels and the description of their measure rules may be found in many books and across the Internet. I emphasize that such theoretical levels are not always specified. The specialized literature often says nothing about calculating targets after the downward breakout for bottom patterns or the upward breakout for top patterns.<br />
<br />
<b>The unique feature of ATmatix</b> is calculating one more target level, based only on the historical data of the patterns. Those statistics allow us to compute, first of all, the <b>effectiveness of the theoretical measure rules</b> (the percentage of reaching the targets in the past), and secondly, they allow us to set the target level with a certain value of <b>probability </b>(based on the historical data).<br />
<br />
Because it is a highly complex matter, and probably the most important for the application, I will describe it in detail in some other posts.<br />
<br />
For now, to sum it up – ATmatix sets the<b> target range</b> of two values (from – to):<br />
<ul>
<li><b>Theoretical level</b> (and presents the effectiveness of reaching it in the past) – it is not always possible to calculate it – i.e. it is missing in case of the downward breakout form the bottom pattern – as I’ve mentioned it above,</li>
<li>The <b>statistical level</b> (reached with certain probability, based on historical data) – this level is always calculated. The exception is when we don’t have the statistics for a certain type of pattern or our data sample is too small. </li>
</ul>
A lower level of the two is always given as the first. If any breakout level will be 0 or less – which can happen for the low value stock and the downward breakouts – obviously such value is not presented.<br />
<br />
ATmatix also displays the <b>expected percentage price changes</b> related to the breakout price (this is the potential of the price change). Let’s remember that these are the values calculated with the assumption of the perfect trade and there is no guarantee of achieving such results. We often fail to buy the stock exactly at the breakout price and sell them right at the target price, and the profit will be reduced by the transactional costs.<br />
<br />
Nevertheless, we know what to expect and whether the transaction made on the basis of one, certain pattern, will be more or less profitable, more or less risky than for some other pattern – thanks to the calculated target levels and statistics gathered by ATmatix.<br />
<br />
One more thing – there may be some situations in which the breakout goes one direction, the price doesn’t meet the target price, then there is a throwback (or pullback) and the price breaks out in the opposite direction.<br />
Then we can say the pattern is <b>busted</b>. ATmatix detects<b> only two breakout occurrences</b> in different directions - after the breakout, there may be a reversed one. In such case, the target levels are adjusted accordingly.<br />
<br />
In case of the third change of the breakout direction (the third breakout directed opposite to the second breakout and in the same direction as the first one), such situation is not being detected. Those cases (multiple pattern busts) are rather <b>rare</b>, but of course still possible.<br />
<br />
Those breakout events are labeled with green or red arrows in the charts, depending on the breakout’s direction. Next to the arrow, you can see the closing price and the breakout date (month and day).<br />
<br />
<h3>
MEETING THE TARGET PRICE</h3>
When the asset price after the breakout reaches at least the predicted target range, the pattern is <b><a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/patterns/completed" target="_blank">completed</a></b>. Certain conditions have to be met:<br />
<ul>
<li>After the upward breakout, the <b>high </b>price on a certain day has to reach the value greater than or equal to the lower level of the target range</li>
<li>After the downward breakout, the <b>low </b>price on a given day has to reach the value lower than or equal to the upper level of the target range</li>
</ul>
Sometimes the price target is met on the same day the breakout had occurred (if the price movement was strong enough to reach it and the target level is near the breakout level) and obviously ATmatix signal both events on the same day.<br />
<br />
The time limit for meeting the price target, since the day of the pattern detection is currently set to <b>90 sessions</b>, regardless of the width of the pattern.<br />
<br />
In the charts, those occurrences of pattern completion are labeled with blue arrows. Next to the arrow, there is the low or high price on the event day (depending on the direction of the breakout).<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-svEAC2v0J6k/WbbC60v6cfI/AAAAAAAAAiw/I0eT0Iqm0jMlYnbAzU24wyP5c-wtkiv4wCLcBGAs/s1600/completed_en.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="300" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-svEAC2v0J6k/WbbC60v6cfI/AAAAAAAAAiw/I0eT0Iqm0jMlYnbAzU24wyP5c-wtkiv4wCLcBGAs/s400/completed_en.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The stock price reaches its target after the breakout - example</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br /><br />
<h3>
COMMENTS</h3>
Irrespective of reaching the target price in a certain time limit or not doing so, ATmatix tracks each pattern for some period yet.<br />
<br />
So, after some time since the pattern completion or since ATmatix has stopped tracking the pattern, its data is deleted, but it is obviously included in our historical stats.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
ATmatix.plhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00234417864500837406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546074712877109785.post-7610924176551827902017-09-03T10:44:00.002+02:002017-09-04T08:49:39.967+02:00WSE indices technical situation overview - 9/1/2017<!-- Description: The periodic overview of technical situation for Warsaw Stock Exchange main indices -->
It's been quite a long time since our last <a href="http://blog.atmatix.pl/2017/07/indeksy-wig-przeglad-sytuacji.html" hreflang="pl" target="_blank">technical situation overview</a> (polish language version only). Meanwhile, <b>WIG20 </b>index has reached the level previously set by ATmatix, and made it even higher. On the other hand, small caps turned out to be the weakest link of the Warsaw Stock Exchange.<br />
<h3>
WIG20 - new highs</h3>
<div>
Recently, we've been expecting the rise to the level of 2468 points on this index, due to the upward breakout from the flat base pattern that emerged in july.<br />
As you can see in the chart, this scenario has been already accomplished.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-F6Irf06S_LA/WaraAhwtLrI/AAAAAAAAAgw/wq6k1ifDXA0_Kk8QMsDIldVPDrrH4OaxgCLcBGAs/s1600/en-WIG20_FLAT_BASE_f86768dd43a01e85e41c452f57c344b2%2B%25281%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="300" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-F6Irf06S_LA/WaraAhwtLrI/AAAAAAAAAgw/wq6k1ifDXA0_Kk8QMsDIldVPDrrH4OaxgCLcBGAs/s400/en-WIG20_FLAT_BASE_f86768dd43a01e85e41c452f57c344b2%2B%25281%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
However, the first approach near the 2420 level failed and the index rebounced down slightly with the throwback below the breakout level of 2363 points. But bulls regained control once more and the index jumped above 2500, making its new yearly highs. Should we have expected that?</div>
<div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
Let's take a look at another pattern - the ascending channel. ATmatix detected this setup on august, 14. The first downward breakout could be misleading, as the downward movement suddendly reversed and the index run up vertically with an impressive momentum, piercing the top of this pattern with a considerable turnover volume. Target price, predicted by ATmatix, was reached on august 28th, almost in point.</div>
<div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7ebv6oSS3-s/WaraQ6HuvjI/AAAAAAAAAg0/yeQtWwyZPe00627Pd14nX0QVBLYO6r_7ACEwYBhgL/s1600/en_WIG20_CHANNEL_ASCENDING_0f232fdf1b79c90e1fb95b6583b5e67f.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="300" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7ebv6oSS3-s/WaraQ6HuvjI/AAAAAAAAAg0/yeQtWwyZPe00627Pd14nX0QVBLYO6r_7ACEwYBhgL/s400/en_WIG20_CHANNEL_ASCENDING_0f232fdf1b79c90e1fb95b6583b5e67f.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
<div>
What to expect next? Looking at the double top pattern, which was invalidated with the upward breakout, we can expect another rise, even above the 2600 level. This target was measured using our <a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/help/stats" target="_blank">statistics </a>that allow us to predict the post-breakout upward movement even in case of pattern tops.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-XNPKz-jlMR8/WarahbFP2LI/AAAAAAAAAg4/Ha6h1wIB594SRFGxDtGM_zxFXS_8VAIlwCLcBGAs/s1600/en-WIG20_DOUBLE_TOP_56daa13b8c8a7f0f5e7e43c9c8d5287b%2B%25281%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="300" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-XNPKz-jlMR8/WarahbFP2LI/AAAAAAAAAg4/Ha6h1wIB594SRFGxDtGM_zxFXS_8VAIlwCLcBGAs/s400/en-WIG20_DOUBLE_TOP_56daa13b8c8a7f0f5e7e43c9c8d5287b%2B%25281%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br />
We had a similar situation already this year - forming the top pattern on WIG20, then invalidating it with a rise to the new highs - see the <a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/patterns/all/de23173e0d550cf699c56f60e5c9692f/400/1425168e98dc96c0333e5b870198f8d7" target="_blank">example pattern</a>.<br />
<br /></div>
<div>
Of course this is not 100% sure, as we are already close to some significant resistance level, which was repeatedly tested in years... 2013 to 2015, and all these attempts resulted in bearish reversals. We're talking about the 2560 - 2630 range. Thus, we're <b>getting close to the important point </b>for this index. In our opinion, we can expect profit realizations near these levels, as far as demand manages to lift the index there.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
MWIG40</h3>
When we looked at the technical situation for mid-cap stocks index in July, it was in the middle of testing its important resistance level. A number of chart patterns emerged there, for which the downward breakouts that occured could lead to a further decline - such as the rising wedge pattern below:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7gxUvTScmwE/WarbOWo2dYI/AAAAAAAAAhA/p_bmXCauXyArbQbxMKdTR9tYplXoCdPKACLcBGAs/s1600/en-MWIG40_WEDGE_RISING_2b4049969c68e4811746f1ffab6ec48f%2B%25282%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="300" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7gxUvTScmwE/WarbOWo2dYI/AAAAAAAAAhA/p_bmXCauXyArbQbxMKdTR9tYplXoCdPKACLcBGAs/s400/en-MWIG40_WEDGE_RISING_2b4049969c68e4811746f1ffab6ec48f%2B%25282%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Nonetheless, the 4660 target has not been reached yet, as the drop was stopped near the 4800 horizontal support level.
<br />
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-MIUyzDpyTHE/WarbiS3owzI/AAAAAAAAAhE/GEj7hLEnj-AoqTx52RmdFutl8OFNjJuLgCLcBGAs/s1600/en-MWIG40_SUPPORT_55df35f43899a5863a9040572d84779c%2B%25281%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="300" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-MIUyzDpyTHE/WarbiS3owzI/AAAAAAAAAhE/GEj7hLEnj-AoqTx52RmdFutl8OFNjJuLgCLcBGAs/s400/en-MWIG40_SUPPORT_55df35f43899a5863a9040572d84779c%2B%25281%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
So we're in a sort of ambiguous situation here - we should be aware of both bullish or bearish scenario. We can expect a breakdown of the 4800 level mentioned above and seeking the underlying support near the 4660 area, or we can also expect the another attempt to break up the resistance located at 4960 points and reach for a new highs.
<br />
<h3>
SWIG80</h3>
Previously, we pointed out at the triangle pattern and its downward breakout, for which the target of 15000 points on the small-caps index was set. This target hasn't been achieved yet and there is a chance that it won't be reached at all. Looking at the chart with a broader scope, we can notice the area near 15100 points and consider it as the potential support. It comes from the horizontal consolidation region that occured in February this year and the index value has already come close to this level during the last few weeks.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-qfkJ_FkBB4A/WarcD4J4IyI/AAAAAAAAAhM/ecdB1PYP85oTY4kMFP5EZDdaNnAV4IoiwCLcBGAs/s1600/en-SWIG80_TRIANGLE_DESCENDING_88ad63d1ed8c8a69f99918ae3a3164ad%2B%25281%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="300" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-qfkJ_FkBB4A/WarcD4J4IyI/AAAAAAAAAhM/ecdB1PYP85oTY4kMFP5EZDdaNnAV4IoiwCLcBGAs/s400/en-SWIG80_TRIANGLE_DESCENDING_88ad63d1ed8c8a69f99918ae3a3164ad%2B%25281%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
We can interpret the price scheme that emerged recently, in several different ways - for example we can consider it as a broadening falling wedge, and so it slightly changes the market perspective, as our statistics indicate the greater possibility for an upward breakout, rather than in the opposite direction.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-oZmpQc4aChg/WarcNIalqQI/AAAAAAAAAhQ/IfnjDpKbvqUtOTKxhM_FZ2gDO8i7H6izgCLcBGAs/s1600/en-SWIG80_WEDGE_DESCENDING_BROADENING_c0f4e67114b38a1eaa9ec9d5a20852c8%2B%25281%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="240" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-oZmpQc4aChg/WarcNIalqQI/AAAAAAAAAhQ/IfnjDpKbvqUtOTKxhM_FZ2gDO8i7H6izgCLcBGAs/s320/en-SWIG80_WEDGE_DESCENDING_BROADENING_c0f4e67114b38a1eaa9ec9d5a20852c8%2B%25281%2529.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
Another version of that data pattern was automatically recognized by ATmatix in this way:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wpO3c1Wkc7w/WarcTnVFZHI/AAAAAAAAAhU/uCq-SKn2pMQcrBwOrdHfm5_PnY4ZfLhegCLcBGAs/s1600/en-SWIG80_WEDGE_FALLING_42c0ea6cacfe77ae22bc145302a856b2%2B%25281%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="300" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wpO3c1Wkc7w/WarcTnVFZHI/AAAAAAAAAhU/uCq-SKn2pMQcrBwOrdHfm5_PnY4ZfLhegCLcBGAs/s400/en-SWIG80_WEDGE_FALLING_42c0ea6cacfe77ae22bc145302a856b2%2B%25281%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
... and yet another in the following way:<br />
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3w11JndMGUc/WarcZwsXgNI/AAAAAAAAAhY/gewnUY16JZQe3ZrRnFOcV8BRyDN5lAqpgCLcBGAs/s1600/en-SWIG80_WEDGE_FALLING_f551b52d4d688765c5a36c822b35f982%2B%25281%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="300" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3w11JndMGUc/WarcZwsXgNI/AAAAAAAAAhY/gewnUY16JZQe3ZrRnFOcV8BRyDN5lAqpgCLcBGAs/s400/en-SWIG80_WEDGE_FALLING_f551b52d4d688765c5a36c822b35f982%2B%25281%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
All these pattern types with upward breakouts are a positive signal quite often, so we can assume the index is likely to go back up near the value of 16000 points.<br />
<br />
The situation is not so clear here as well, but still the attempt to rebound may turn out to be successful - in our opinion, the anticipated rise above the 15600 level, along with a strong turnover volume, should increase the chances to defend the recent minimum. If the market chooses the opposite direction, the level of about 15100 points is expected to form the another layer of support.<br />
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<br />ATmatix.plhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00234417864500837406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546074712877109785.post-75824897391630850692017-08-30T15:19:00.000+02:002017-08-30T15:19:26.094+02:00Email notifications<!-- Description: ATmatix email notifications (alerts on the most important pattern events for WSE) -->
ATmatix is able to send you <b>email notifications</b> about patterns and other events detected. This option is available <b>for PREMIUM users only</b> (just a quick reminder, <a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/account/register">registering a new account</a> gives you 15 days of PREMIUM account trial period <b>for free</b>).<br />
<br />
Email notifications inform you about:<br />
<ul>
<li>Newly identified price patterns (patterns that are <b>emerging</b>, but not yet confirmed with a breakout),</li>
<li>Patterns <b>close to an upward or downward breakout</b> (which may result in actual breakout and a further move in the direction of the breakout or changing the direction of the movement and bouncing back),</li>
<li>Patterns with <b>breakouts</b>,</li>
<li><b>Reaching predicted price targets</b>, previously set by ATmatix after breakouts.</li>
</ul>
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Specific stages of the patterns’ lifecycle (from their detection to completion) will be discussed in another blog post.<br />
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The email notification you get, obviously does not include all patterns or events from the day (or week), but is narrowed to the most important ones, which have the biggest potential – the largest expected rise (or decline, depending on the direction of the movement).<br />
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<b>Defaultly, the notifications are enabled</b>. To disable them or to change their frequency, you have to log in, go to the account settings page, by clicking your email address in the right upper corner of the screen or by choosing the “Account” option available in the dropdown menu (such as it is done in the picture):<br />
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Then, in the “Notifications” section you can disable or enable the option “I would like to receive notifications”, and specify both the scope of data and the frequency of the notifications.<br />
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Ghe1lxpNm9Y/Waa6-5uRVUI/AAAAAAAAAfc/OwgcDrthIA4Bj1GOxthr9ula6voabnX3gCLcBGAs/s1600/notifications_en.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="370" data-original-width="948" height="155" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Ghe1lxpNm9Y/Waa6-5uRVUI/AAAAAAAAAfc/OwgcDrthIA4Bj1GOxthr9ula6voabnX3gCLcBGAs/s400/notifications_en.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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The "data scope" list has two options:<br />
<ul>
<li><b>All </b>– the user will be informed about all the detected pattern occurrences and events happening on the instruments tracked by ATmatix,</li>
<li><b>Watchlist only</b> – the user will be notified only about events detected for assets added to their Watch List. The Watch List is visible for logged-in users in the <a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/patterns/all">patterns table</a> page. The table and Watch List usage tutorial can be found <a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/blog/posts/2017/08/using-patterns-list.html">here</a>.</li>
</ul>
Available notification frequencies:<br />
<ul>
<li>Daily – notifications are sent once a day, after each trading session ends (with a slight delay), and it includes the events from the last (current) session.</li>
<li>Weekly – once a week, sent after the Friday trading session ends - it includes the highlights of the current week.</li>
</ul>
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A valid example of such a notification, to be exact a part of it, you will find in the picture below. Individual sections of the messages relate to the onscreen sections of the pattern table and they are narrowed to the most important data, according to what I have written above. The data are sorted by the absolute value of pattern potential in descending order.<br />
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Each section has maximum of:<br />
<ul>
<li>10 items in daily notifications,</li>
<li>20 items in weekly notifications.</li>
</ul>
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Individual parts of the email notifications also include the events detected in the <b>main indices/futures</b> and <b>industry (sector) indices</b> of the WSE. We have decided to divide the assets into two groups, as usually the indices/futures price movements are smaller (speaking of percentages) than those for stocks.<br />
Not dividing them could result in skipping some of the potentially important patterns on the indices, because of their low potential compared to the patterns detected for the stocks. In this way, it is easier to observe the technical situation of the selected group of instruments, in the broad market, or in individual sectors.<br />
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Last, but not the least, I would remark that the notifications are sent only when <b>at least one</b> pattern event has been detected in the selected data scope and the selected time period, since the last notification.<br />
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ATmatix.plhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00234417864500837406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546074712877109785.post-48707413879348811232017-08-28T09:58:00.004+02:002017-08-28T10:04:56.925+02:00Using the patterns list<!-- Description: The ATmatix patterns table usage - browsing, searching, visualization -->
This post describes the usage basics for the ATmatix <a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/patterns/all">patterns table</a>. It is the most important part of the application. The list allows you to browse, search, filter and sort the patterns that have been automatically detected by our algorithms.<br />
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<h4>
FILTERING</h4>
In the upper part of the web page, you will find the <b>filtering buttons</b> (tabs) that narrow the data view to patterns that are in a certain <b>state </b>– the tabs list is marked as A in the picture below:<br />
<ul>
<li>All (without any filtering - all pattern states)</li>
<li>New/unconfirmed – restricts the view to patterns which didn’t have breakouts yet; they may however be “close to upward breakout” or “close to downward breakout”</li>
<li>Near upward/downward breakouts – restricts the view to patterns close to breakout, but without the actual breakouts,</li>
<li>Upward/downward breakouts – narrows the view to patterns which had breakouts, but the target price after a breakout has not been yet achieved,</li>
<li>Completed – limits the view to patterns for which the target price was reached.</li>
</ul>
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There is also the additional “<b>Watchlist</b>” button, which narrows the view to the assets that were added to the user’s favorites list. This button may be in enabled or disabled state and is <b>visible to logged-in users</b> only.<br />
You can see the Watch List below the filtering tabs (marked as B in the picture). In order to add the stocks or indices to the list, you need to click (or tap) the list and type in at least 2 characters, to see the dropdown list with asset names that match the entered string.<br />
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After the entry is chosen from the list, it will be added to your Watch List. Attention: if a chosen stock has already been on the Watchlist and is chosen again, it will be removed from your Watch List.<br />
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To manually remove an asset from the Watch List, click the “x” button located next to the symbol in the list. You may also use backspace key to remove the last element from the list.<br />
Clicking (or tapping) the symbol (but not the removal button of course) will narrow the content of the patterns table only to the selected asset.<br />
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<b><br /></b>
<b>SYMBOL GROUPS FILTER</b><br />
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Below the Watch List, there are buttons additionally limiting the pattern list only to stocks that belong to a certain <b>group </b>(marked as C in the picture above).<br />
Currently, the available groups are:<br />
<ul>
<li>All (no narrowing) – all the patterns are visible (albeit the state filtering still apply, of course),</li>
<li>WIG20, MWIG40, SWIG80 – only stocks listed in the selected index,</li>
<li>Main indices – only the patterns for the main WIG indices (WIG20, WIG20SHORT, WIG30, MWIG40, SWIG80, WIG etc. FW20 futures are also included in this group),</li>
<li>Sector indices – only the industry indices, such as: WIG-energy, WIG-oil&gas, etc.</li>
</ul>
To disable the group filtering, click the “all” button.<br />
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<h4>
TABLE VIEW</h4>
Below the Watch List, you will find the <b>patterns table</b> (marked as H in the screenshot).<br />
The table is divided into pages, with max. 10 rows per page as the default. To change the number of entries per page, use the dropdown list (marked as D).<br />
In the lower part of the list, there are navigation icons allowing you to move between pages (previous, next, page numbers) – marked as I in the picture.<br />
Below the table, you can see the date of the last data update. The data is updated daily, after each WSE trading session ends.<br />
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The pattern list has the following columns:<br />
<ul>
<li>Symbol/Ticker</li>
<li>Pattern type</li>
<li>Width (the number of sessions – or candlesticks – wthin the pattern, since the starting point of the pattern until its endpoint)</li>
<li><b>Potential</b> – this is the range of the expected post-breakout price movement, calculated in accordance with the measure rule for a given pattern type, with the assumption of the anticipated (yet not 100% sure) breakout. The detailed information on target range measurement methods will be posted on the blog some time in the future. We have to mention that the value of the potential is being updated twice: right after the pattern detection and after a breakout (upward or downward) takes place.</li>
<li>Detection date – this is the day on which the pattern has been detected by ATmatix (also the date of the pattern’s end-point),</li>
<li>Near breakout – this is the last (newest) date of the price being close to the breakout level (upward or downward). Up or down arrow suggests the hypothetical breakout direction.</li>
<li>Breakout – the date of the actual breakout. The breakout can be the pattern’s confirmation or invalidation, depending on the type of the pattern, i.e. upward breakout is a confirmation for bottom patterns. The arrow suggests a breakout direction.</li>
<li>Target reached – the day the price has met the breakout target price range, previously set by ATmatix. It means that the pattern was completed on that day.</li>
</ul>
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<h4>
SORTING</h4>
Data are sorted by default by the value of two columns: the date of the last event (in descending order) and the pattern potential (also in descending order). Depending on the choice of the tab (new, near breakout, breakouts, etc.) the default sorting changes into:<br />
<ul>
<li>Detection date (descending order), potential (descending) – for the “new/ unconfirmed” tab,</li>
<li>Near breakout date (descending order), potential (descending) – for the “near breakout” tabs,</li>
<li>The date of the breakout (descending order), potential (descending) – for the “breakout” tabs,</li>
<li>The date of reaching the target (descending order), potential (descending) – for the “completed” tab.</li>
</ul>
Any time you can sort the data by the desired column, by clicking/tapping the column’s header. If you want to sort the data using more than one column, you need to press and hold the SHIFT key, and then, click the chosen columns’ headers in a desired order, to set the sorting.<br />
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<b>To restore the default sort order</b>, use the button located on the right of the search box – marked as G in the picture.<br />
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<h4>
SEARCHING</h4>
In the upper side of the table, you can find the search input box – marked as E in the picture. The search engine allows you to find information according to the certain criteria. Type at least 2 characters – you don’t need to enter the whole name, ticker or symbol, but a fragment is just enough.<br />
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You may type:<br />
<ul>
<li>A symbol, ticker or stock/index name. After typing at least 2 first characters the drop down list of the matching names opens.</li>
<li>You don’t have to choose the name from the list, as the filtering works immediately after typing a part of the name. If you decide to choose the name from the list, then the search results will be limited to that chosen asset.</li>
<li>Type of pattern – you can type a part of the pattern’s name (e.g. “wedge”, “bottom”, etc.)</li>
<li>The rest of the data visible in the table, such as pattern width, the potential, detection date, near breakout date, breakout date, and so on.</li>
</ul>
To use <b>multiple search criteria</b>, you need to separate them with space, e.g. “W20 bottom”, which will find all the bottom patterns for the instruments with names containing “W20”. For an exact match, you need to use the dot character (“.”), e.g..<br />
<ul>
<li>".WIG" (“.” in front of the name) narrows the results to the names starting with WIG)</li>
<li>"W20." (“.” following the name) restricts the table content to the names ending with W20</li>
<li>“.WIG.”(“.” In front of the name and following the name) narrows the results to the exact name (WIG only). </li>
</ul>
To <b>clear the search filter</b>, you need to click the button marked as F in the picture (or delete the content of the “search” box).<br />
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<h4>
PATTERN DETAILS</h4>
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On the <b>left side of each row</b> in the table, there is a <b>button that expands the pattern details</b> (you can also double click on the row, to expand it, or – in the mobile version of the page – just tap it once).<br />
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Details include:<br />
<ul>
<li>Name/type of the pattern</li>
<li>Upward/downward <b>breakout statistics</b> (displayed only for the patterns for which a breakout didn’t occur yet) – this is visible for PREMIUM users only – the percentage of upward/downward breakouts that happened in the past. Because there can be both upward and downward breakout (i.e. there is an upward breakout, then the price reverses without meeting the target and the downward breakout occurs – so called pattern bust). In such cases statistics count the <b>stronger </b>of the two moves that occurred after breakouts. Another scenario is – no breakout at all (ATmatix tracks the chart pattern only for limited time after the breakout). That’s why these statistics don’t have to sum up to 100%.</li>
<li><b>Target range</b>/<b>statistical pattern effectiveness</b> – price target range computed after the breakout (usually two values). One of the values is based on the <b>measure rule</b> for the given pattern type (typically, adding the height of the pattern to the breakout level), and the second is based on the <b>statistics </b>of the past pattern performance. Because the subject is really broad and in the nutshell this is the most important part of ATmatix, we are going to write a separate blog post on this topic). <br />Given are also the absolute values (the target prices) and the expected percentage change in relation to the price of the breakout.<br /><b>Statistical effectiveness</b> is the percentage of the historical breakouts reaching at least the given level (for upward breakouts, the price should reach the given level or higher, for downward breakouts it should reach the given level or lower). This information is available for PREMIUM users only and it allows you to evaluate the chances for meeting the expected price level. </li>
<li><b>Volume trend</b> – measures the volume change between the first and the last detected point of the pattern (it is computed for all the pattern points from the starting point till the day of its detection). This is the value calculated by applying the linear regression method and the trend is determined with a regression line slope. Usually, the theory states that in most cases the volume is decreasing during the pattern creation, but we’re going to describe our research on this matter in a separate blog post.</li>
<li>The breakout price – the price, being a base of a post-breakout target calculation (breakout happens when the price pierces this level). It is a point on the trendline (or horizontal level) that limits the pattern (top line for upward breakouts, bottom line for downward breakouts). </li>
<li><b>Breakout volume</b> – the comparison of turnover volume on the day of the breakout with the average volume of 30 pre-breakout sessions. It is assumed that the breakout volume should be clearly higher, which increases the chance for a stronger post-breakout movement. We are going to research this matter more closely in the future. Volume information is available to PREMIUM users only.</li>
<li>The throwback/pullback statistics and break even failure rates for a given pattern type.</li>
</ul>
In the details view, there is also a button available, which allows you to add or remove the selected stock from the Watch List.<br />
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<h4>
CHART VIEW</h4>
Clicking the stock’s name in the “Ticker” column, or the name of the stock in the pattern details, opens the <b>chart view</b>. It is a modal window where you can find candlestick chart for the selected pattern and detailed information about the statistics, price targets and volume.<br />
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This view allows you to browse consecutive patterns from the patterns table, using the <b>hidden arrows in the left and right side of the chart</b>. Those links are invisible and to enable them, you have to move the mouse pointer to the edge of the chart.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VPRPbgscWPo/WaPGEchchkI/AAAAAAAAAeA/C_5ts7--pL8pekNRXv_7rySrqlR82MjcwCLcBGAs/s1600/chart_en.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="942" data-original-width="1123" height="335" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VPRPbgscWPo/WaPGEchchkI/AAAAAAAAAeA/C_5ts7--pL8pekNRXv_7rySrqlR82MjcwCLcBGAs/s400/chart_en.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The chart view</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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It is also possible to use the <b>arrow keys</b> on your keyboard, to navigate between the patterns.<br />
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What is also worth mentioning, is the chart view respects the filters and sorting applied to the patterns table, so after switching to the chart view, navigation to the next or previous chart matches the content and sort order of that table.<br />
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Chart view may be <b>closed </b>by clicking the X icon in the upper right corner of the modal window, clicking outside the chart window or pressing ESC on your keyboard.<br />
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Just a few words about the content of the chart itself.<br />
The horizontal axis contains the dates of the stock market sessions. The scale corresponds to daily intervals. The date range includes only the period in which the pattern occurred along with certain margins.<br />
Vertical axis is the price value on a linear scale. The values of the<b> turnover volume</b> are placed in the background of the chart (as light gray bars) and are scaled so that the maximum volume value in the time period shown is at the top of the vertical axis. The absolute values of the volume are not shown.<br />
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The visualization of the pattern includes:<br />
<ul>
<li>Blue dotted lines connecting the detected pattern characteristic points (only for certain types of pattern),</li>
<li>Green and red lines indicating the trendlines within the pattern – piercing these levels by the price result in upward or downward breakout. Horizontal price levels are shown as dotted lines. The levels narrowing the linear patterns such as: triangle, inverted triangles, wedges, inverse wedges, channels, etc. are shown as solid lines,</li>
<li>Blue horizontal dotted lines denote target prices (if the breakout occurred).</li>
</ul>
The <b>events </b>occuring as part of the pattern, are marked with arrows (some examples are given below):<br />
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<ul>
<li>“near breakout”, when the price approaches the breakout level, is marked with a yellow arrow (after the breakout, this information is hidden, so as not to unnecessary complicate the chart)</li>
<li>The breakout is marked with a green/red color arrow (green for upward breakout and red for downward breakout)</li>
<li>Meeting the target price range (the pattern completion) is marked with blue color arrow. Upward pointing arrow indicates that the target price after a downward breakout was reached. Downward pointing arrow denotes the price target was reached after an upward breakout. </li>
</ul>
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The colors of the arrows in the chart match the colors of the arrows in the patterns table. Next to each arrow the information about the event <b>price </b>and the <b>date </b>of the event is shown. In case of the “near breakout” and the breakout event, the closing price is displayed. In case of target achieved event, the daily low (L) or high (H) price is shown – depending on the breakout direction.</div>
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ATmatix.plhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00234417864500837406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546074712877109785.post-66086645093824145852017-08-25T12:33:00.001+02:002017-09-06T16:59:44.958+02:00Payments and promotions<!-- Description: ATmatix PREMIUM access payment process description -->
<a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/account/register">Registering new ATmatix account</a> gives you 15 days of trial PREMIUM access <b>without any fees</b>. We don’t need any personal or credit card data except of your email and password.
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After this period (15 days from the registration date) the validity of your PREMIUM account finishes and it becomes a regular account. It differs us from a popular “pay and test, then you may cancel within x days” model. Our approach is different, more beneficial for you. During those 15 days you can try and test <b>all the features</b> of our application normally accessible in a <b>full version</b>. If you are interested in maintaining the access to features such as: price pattern data for all WSE-listed stocks and indices, breakout, efficiency, throwback/pullback statistics for all price patterns and email notifications about the most important events, you can extend the validity period of your PREMIUM account. If not, then it automatically becomes a regular account, without the features mentioned above.<br />
<br />
Additionally, if after subscription fee was already paid, you’re not interested in further access to those extra features any more, you can resign any time during the subscription period and you will get the refund of the unused part of that period.<br />
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To sum up, you get <b>15 days PREMIUM access for free</b>, and within or after this trial period you can make a subscription payment to maintain the full access.<br />
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<a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/help/pricing">Feature comparison</a> of regular and PREMIUM account may be found below:<br />
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<th class="text-center">Public (anonymous) access</th>
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<td><abbr data-toggle="tooltip" title="Stocks included in WIG20 index, WIG20 index itself, WIG30 index and ETF W20L">Chart pattern data for WIG20 stocks and selected WSE WIG indices</abbr>
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<td>Favorite stocks list (Watch List)</td>
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<td>Pattern data for the rest of the main market stocks, all WIG indices (including sector indices) and FW20 futures</td>
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<td>Breakout, efficiency, pullbacks/throwbacks and break even failures statistics for price chart patterns</td>
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<td>Email notifications</td>
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<td><abbr data-toggle="tooltip" title="Volume trend analysis and breakout volume comparison to the average pre-breakout volume">Volume analysis</abbr>
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<td><abbr data-toggle="tooltip" title="Trading liquidity information based on average daily stock’s turnover volume">Liquidity analysis</abbr>
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<td>No ads</td>
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If the user wants to continue the PREMIUM access, he/she have to make subscription payment according to the pricelist given below.<br />
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What are the advantages of using the PREMIUM account? In short, we:<br />
<ul>
<li>Detect the most known and popular price <b>chart patterns</b> (a lot from the list of technical analysis specialist Thomas Bulkowski; our list is not final and will be further developed),</li>
<li>Warn you if the price is <b>close to the breakout</b> (both upward and downward), which allows you to place a buy or sell order in advance – you are given statistical chances of breakout in a specific direction (based on historical data),</li>
<li>Detect <b>upward/downward breakouts</b>, automatically setting the<b> target price</b> with the <b>probability </b>based on statistics of past pattern performance during the last few years for WSE (updated periodically). We compute not only the theoretical target levels, according to the technical analysis methodology, but also levels based on<b> our own method of calculating targets</b> of post-breakout price movement with their <b>estimated probability</b> – of course this is backed up with the statistics from the past data.<br />If you think it’s not enough – our methodology allows us to estimate the price target after a downward breakout even for bottom patterns – this is our <b>unique feature</b> that you probably won’t find anywhere else. It helps us to foresee (with some probability) how far the price is going to decline, when the new double bottom has emerged and then denied by a downward breakout, </li>
<li>Alert you when the price <b>target </b>was met,</li>
<li>Compare a <b>breakout volume</b> in relation to the average pre-breakout volume, which strenghten (or weaken) the significance of such signal (very often – but not always – the high relative volume indicate the possibility of a higher price movement),</li>
<li>Automatically <b>notify</b> you about those events via email (daily or weekly, as you wish).</li>
</ul>
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In this way, you may reject or accept certain scenarios resulting from specific setups and evaluate if it is going to be profitable or too risky.<br />
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This allows you to <b>plan </b>your activities in advance. I personally often place buy stop orders, slightly above the breakout level, even before the actual upward breakout takes place. Many of my sell-limit orders, placed in advance with activation price set just below the target price, were also closed when a post-breakout target (predicted by ATmatix) was actually reached – thanks to our application and its probability estimation. From time to time, I’m going to post some examples of such setups in this blog. I encourage you to test the application, as it is free of charge for the trial period, and hopefully it will become your another useful investment tool.<br />
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Let’s take a look at the pricelist:<br />
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<th class="text-center">Subscription plans (for different validity periods)</th>
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<th class="text-center hidden-xs">Monthly cost (for 30 days)</th>
<th class="text-center">Additional bonuses</th>
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PREMIUM subscription 30 days
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<td class="text-center"><h4 class="text-success">
<strong>29 PLN</strong></h4>
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29 PLN</h5>
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PREMIUM subscription 90 days
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<strong>78 PLN</strong></h4>
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26 PLN</h5>
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Money saving
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<h5 class="text-success">
9
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PREMIUM subscription 180 days
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<td class="text-center"><h4 class="text-success">
<strong>138 PLN</strong></h4>
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23 PLN</h5>
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<td class="text-center bg-success"><strong>
Money saving
</strong>
<br />
<h5 class="text-success">
36
PLN
<span class="glyphicon glyphicon-question-sign" data-toggle="tooltip" title="Compared to 30 days payment cycle"></span>
</h5>
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All fees are given in PLN (polish zloty). <b>Please note that the amount paid in your local currency can be different</b> due to varying exchange rates.<br />
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As you can see, depending on the number of days of the subscription plan, the average cost declines for long-term subscriptions. For the 180 days subscription you gain up to <b>20% discount</b> (compared to renewals after each 30 days).<br />
From time to time, we can also introduce some additional promotions and temporary discounts – in order not to miss them, just follow our blog and application pages.<br />
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="paymentProcess"></a>
Renewing of the PREMIUM subscription is as follows:<br /><br />
<ul>
<li>Choose your subscription plan from the pricelist – it’s available in the <a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/account/settings/payments" target="_blank">Payments</a> tab of the account settings page. Mark the acceptance of the Terms of Service and immediate service execution. It means that you lose the ability to withdraw from the agreement within a statutory period (remember we gave you 15 days completely for free in the beginning). Later, you may cancel the agreement according to what is written above and to our Terms of Service.<br />Then, click "go to the order details".</li>
</ul>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ZZ1jmi_5_7Y/WZ_5F1LrLYI/AAAAAAAAAdQ/tOT2NcPenxAloSNRs0jyWOybPxU39PdQACEwYBhgL/s1600/subscriptions_en.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="626" data-original-width="1110" height="225" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ZZ1jmi_5_7Y/WZ_5F1LrLYI/AAAAAAAAAdQ/tOT2NcPenxAloSNRs0jyWOybPxU39PdQACEwYBhgL/s400/subscriptions_en.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Subscription plan selection</td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Order details<br />
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<ul>
<li>If all the data in the order summary are correct, click “Go to the Payment form” and you will be redirected to the Payment Operator page. The Payment Operator is <a href="https://tpay.com/en">TPay.com</a> – the payment form is visible in the screenshot below.</li>
</ul>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jnssqehtvRo/WZ_5u7gN-EI/AAAAAAAAAdY/Z5_3V6268pIXZNsQXKFBga5iWevMTccUwCLcBGAs/s1600/tpay_form_en.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="667" data-original-width="920" height="290" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jnssqehtvRo/WZ_5u7gN-EI/AAAAAAAAAdY/Z5_3V6268pIXZNsQXKFBga5iWevMTccUwCLcBGAs/s400/tpay_form_en.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">TPay order form<br />
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<ul>
<li>Choose your bank or payment method. <b>Currently, non-Polish users can make payments using PayPal (which also has an option to pay with a credit card) or issue a SEPA bank transfer</b>.<br /></li>
<li>Next, fill-in the required form fields. Please, provide a working <b>email address</b> (it should be pre-filled with your ATmatix username), as it will simplify the payment status tracking – the Payment Operator sends you status updates on the payment process. Should you have any problems, you can <a href="https://tpay.com/en/my-payment" rel="nofollow">check your payment status</a> using the payment ID provided by TPAY.<br /></li>
<li>Click “Next” and you will be redirected to your chosen bank website or payment method, where you can confirm it. Please follow the instructions you see on the screen to complete the payment.<br />Note: in case of a SEPA bank transfer, you will have to make a transfer by yourself using the beneficiary account number and transaction identifier provided by TPAY on the screen.<br /></li>
<li>After a successful payment, you will be redirected back to our web page.</li>
</ul>
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-HUIo9u_319c/WZ_6JEm5E2I/AAAAAAAAAdc/JHDqnAFSCDQOeFev3VNeL0feXX_TnHMtQCLcBGAs/s1600/payment_done_en.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="412" data-original-width="698" height="235" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-HUIo9u_319c/WZ_6JEm5E2I/AAAAAAAAAdc/JHDqnAFSCDQOeFev3VNeL0feXX_TnHMtQCLcBGAs/s400/payment_done_en.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<ul>
<li>ATmatix will automatically extend the validity period of your PREMIUM account, as soon as we get the payment confirmation from TPAY. You will be informed about it via email. </li>
</ul>
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In most cases, the online payments will be confirmed within <b>few minutes</b>. In case of other payment methods (for instance, a regular bank transfer) it may take <b>longer</b>, up to a couple of days.<br />
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ATmatix.plhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00234417864500837406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546074712877109785.post-83129314154940900172017-08-25T11:41:00.004+02:002017-08-25T11:44:34.979+02:00Free ATmatix account registration<!-- Description: ATmatix account registration process -->
<a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/account/register">Registering a new PREMIUM account</a> is absolutely <b>free of charge</b>. With the premium account you are given:<br />
<ul>
<li>The access to the automatic price pattern analysis for all the stocks and indices listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange main market,</li>
<li>Email <b>notifications </b>about new patterns, patterns approaching breakout levels, the breakouts themselves and prices reaching the predicted targets,</li>
<li>The access to <b><a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/help/stats" target="_blank">historical pattern statistics</a></b> for WSE<b> </b>- the effectiveness of breakouts (percentage of patterns meeting the target price) for each pattern type, the <b>probability </b>of upward/downward breakouts, pullback/throwback rates and chances for break even failure,</li>
<li>The analysis of <b>volume </b>trend during the pattern creation and the information on breakout volume.</li>
</ul>
The user, who registers new account, is given 15 days of PREMIUM access trial period for <b>free and without any obligation</b>. After 15 days, your PREMIUM account automatically becomes a <a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/help/pricing">regular account</a>, unless you decide to extend the PREMIUM validity period.<br />
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To register, we don’t need any personal data, except of your email address. The registration process is as follows:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-zFAOUbGqg_E/WZ_twElWW5I/AAAAAAAAB0Q/llz70i2megsqq56yfm0dJkJ_LGQrVav7QCLcBGAs/s1600/form_en.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="616" data-original-width="468" height="320" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-zFAOUbGqg_E/WZ_twElWW5I/AAAAAAAAB0Q/llz70i2megsqq56yfm0dJkJ_LGQrVav7QCLcBGAs/s320/form_en.png" width="243" /></a></div>
<ol>
<li>By filling out the <a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/account/register">sign up form</a>, the user gives their email address, which is also account’s name and chooses their own password. It should be at least 6 characters long, may contain letters, numbers and special characters (but not spaces). Not to mention the password should be difficult to guess and known only by the owner of the account.</li>
<li>An email with the activation link is sent to the given email address. You have to <b>click that link to fully activate your account</b>. After submitting this form, check the message in your email inbox. Please note that some email providers may group messages in folders of different names, such as "offers" - if you could not locate our message, it may have been moved there or classified as spam.</li>
<li>After a successful activation you can <a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/login">log in</a> using the credentials you provided in step 1.</li>
</ol>
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More information can be found in the <a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/help">Help</a> section<br />
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ATmatix.plhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00234417864500837406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546074712877109785.post-21385088079067685582017-08-24T15:04:00.003+02:002017-08-24T18:58:45.814+02:00Introducing ATmatixWelcome to the <a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/" target="_blank">ATmatix</a>, a blog dedicated to our technical analysis tool – an automatic price chart patterns detector.
Here, we are going to present the features of our application and publish own thoughts, ideas and research results concerning the <b>Warsaw Stock Exchange</b> (WSE), as well as other, hopefully interesting and helpful information about technical analysis.<br />
<!-- Description: Introducing ATmatix - the automatic technical analysis tool and chart patterns detector -->
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A few words to begin with the application itself – we point at automatic detection of price chart patterns, such as the most popular ones: double bottoms/tops, head and shoulders bottoms/tops, triangles, wedges and many more, for WSE-listed stocks.
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Of course, you may find them yourself, but browsing through tens or even hundreds of charts everyday is rather tiring – and what is the most important – it takes your precious time that can be spent on other, most likely more interesting, activities.
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This is the reason why we decided to create an application that will make this process automatic and will even inform the users not only about the patterns detection but also about prices approaching a breakout level. It determines the price targets after breakouts, <b>estimate their probability</b> (oh yes, we have the historical and statistical data that allows it), inform you about the volume trend during pattern creation and during breakouts – and most importantly, it sends you notifications of the most important pattern events.
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<br />
<h3>
Motivation</h3>
The tool of technical analysis is undoubtedly really helpful while making decisions concerning purchasing or selling stocks and other financial instruments. Technical indicators, oscillators and candlestick charts are probably the issues most familiar to most traders. Many technical analysis applications and web portals calculate and make such data available for various world-wide markets.
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Of course, many people also use fundamental analysis of a given stock and probably take into account various factors, such as the current market situation or even current economic and political issues. You can find this information (financial results and indicators, analyses, recommendations) on many web pages.
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However, we focused on a matter that seems to be slightly omitted on the Polish trading market. While detecting, for example, a candlestick pattern (consisting typically of one or more candles of a specific price scheme) or computing the RSI or MACD indicators does not represent a considerable technical challenge.<br />
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What requires <b>much more effort</b> is recognizing <b>price patterns</b> such as: flags, triangles, wedges and others – and this is not just purely technological effort.
In my opinion, the problem lies in almost no formalization of this methodology. Everyone knows how, more or less, should a double bottom or a triangle look like, but no one has tried to comprise them with, for instance, a formal mathematical definition, so as to using it would give you always the same result. We had to find some of the answers ourselves. Because of the nature of automatic algorithms, sometimes we can’t really recognize some of the patterns at first glance; in other cases, the ones that we think are matching the template don’t meet the formal definition, thus have to be rejected (for instance, the price goes beyond the pattern slightly too far, or the rise between the bottom and the top of the pattern is too small etc. - with the manual chart examination such details may be easily missed). Therefore, the results of the algorithms’ output don’t have to be acceptable to everyone, but some <b>assumptions must have been made</b>.
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A good clue and also an inspiration for creating ATmatix, were the works of an American trader Thomas Bulkowski. His website and books are a source of information on technical analysis patterns in an organized and methodological way. Of course, not all the information could be verified and you don’t have to agree with all of them. What is more, they may be inadequate for the reality of the Polish stock market, but in my opinion, it is the best database of technical analysis knowledge, so far.
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Undoubtedly, there are various plug-ins for technical analysis programs or other tools searching for patterns in the charts, but not all of them are free of charge and not all of them will give you information, which are the most valuable for traders. I’m sure you would like to know, for example:
<br />
<ul>
<li>What is the <b>probability </b>of upward/downward breakout in a given pattern?</li>
<li><b>How high (or how low)</b> can the price go after breakout?</li>
<li>Which patterns are<b> the most/the less effective</b> regarding the likelihood of meeting the price target after breakout?</li>
</ul>
Those, and a lot more questions, we are going to answer in this blog and with our ATmatix service. If not – I am pretty sure, there are at least clues that will help you to make your own trading decisions.
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Clearly, no one is able to foresee the future, but having access to some historical data concerning the stock price behavior in the past may rise the chance of good trading setup recognition and making the right conclusions – and this is what investing is all about.
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This is the moment to inform that any information published on this blog and the ATmatix service are not investment advice, and users are alone responsible for their decisions. We are not going to create an illusion of owning a crystal ball, which can tell “sell this now, buy that then”. However, we try to inform about the way our application works in the clear and accessible way.
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I encourage you to give <a href="https://www.atmatix.pl/en/" target="_blank">ATmatix</a> a try.
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Best,<br />
Piotr Kuciapski<br />
Founder at ATmatix.pl
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<br />ATmatix.plhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00234417864500837406noreply@blogger.com0